The Cal Raleigh Phenomenon: A Study in the Three True Outcomes
Cal Raleigh has put together the best hitting first half by a catcher in Major League history, with his 35 long balls tying the Mariners first half record set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998. Almost 20 years later, baseball is viewed differently than the days of Griffey, Sosa, and McGwire. The analytics revolution pioneered by Moneyball, a landmark book written by Michael Lewis, and the introduction of Statcast in 2015 are to blame for that shift in viewpoint. This new data has pushed players further towards the three true outcomes of baseball: the home run, the strikeout, and the walk. Three true outcomes baseball leads to less balls in play, but that is a benefit for a lumbering slugger like Raleigh. Raleigh has become a 3 true outcomes titan, posting a combined HR%, K%, and BB% of 47.8%. His greatness this season is not a product of reducing that percentage, but improving metrics inside the statistic.
Home Runs:
Home runs (HR) are the driving force behind most offenses in modern baseball, and that trend is only growing in the statcast era; from 2015-2024, World Series winning teams averaged 215 HRs per season, while from 2004-2014, that same group averaged 197 HRs per season (Stathead). The advanced data that began to be tracked in Major League ballparks starting in 2015 definitely boosted hitter knowledge about the ingredients for a HR. Cal Raleigh has improved two traceable metrics that point back to his historic start.
1. Barrels
Barrels are batted balls hit with both optimal exit velocity and optimal launch angle. The optimal exit velocity for a HR is over 98 mph and gives more leeway for suboptimal launch angles. A ball launched between 26° and 30° is always optimal and expands as exit velocity grows. In 2016, Barrels had a .822 batting average and a 2.385 slugging, far and away the best type of batted ball (MLB).
In 2025, Cal Raleigh has increased both his average exit velocity and launch angle by substantial margin. When comparing his 2024 and 2025 campaign, his bat speed stands out as a major improvement, going from 84% to 90%, leading to a 1.1 mph increase in average EV. His average launch angle has also increased by 3° in 2025, allowing for more of his batted balls to leave the ballpark. Both of those developments have lead to a 19.7% barrel rate, which is 5th in all of MLB.
2. Batted Ball Distribution.
Not only does it matter how the baseball comes off the bat, but much of Raleigh’s HR success has come from the direction that he hits the ball. The most common type of HR in all of MLB is a pulled fly ball, or a ball hit in the air by a RHB that travels down the third base line.
Cal Raleigh is the best hitter in MLB at pulling the ball in the air. As a switch hitter, 37% of his batted balls are pulled fly balls, which explains the grouping of HRs near the corners of the ballpark. He doesn’t need elite bat speed or exit velocity when he can pull the ball at this rate because the distance to hit a HR to the corners is decreased. In 2025, he increased his attack direction to 9° to the pull side as well has increasing attack angle to 18°. To sum it up, he is hitting the ball down the line up in the air more efficiently than any other hitter in baseball.
Strikeouts:
A HR centric approach brings an increase in strikeouts, as you give up plate coverage and discipline with an increase in swing speed. Strikeouts (K) have been on a steady increase along with the HR as baseball continues to embrace power bats over contact. World Series Campions saw a 5% increase in team wide K rate starting in the statcast era compared to the preceding decade. Elite hitters like Raleigh are able to limit chases and punish pitches in the zone.
1. Chase%
Pitchers do not like to throw the ball in the strike zone. I know that is obvious but it informs a lot of the swing decisions made by MLB batters. If you know that the pitch is unlikely to be a strike, holding back will lead to a lot of success.
Pitchers are simply not throwing Cal Raleigh many strikes this year, and he is not chasing as much as he did in 2024. In 2025, he has dropped his Chase% by 3% points, giving him extra pitches to see. His Chase% of 25% is not elite, or even average, but is passable with how hard Raleigh hits the ball. Pitchers are hesitant to walk batters. (unless you are 2004 Barry Bonds) leading to Raleigh seeing fastballs in the zone for pitchers to not fall behind in the count.
2. Punishing Pitches in the Zone
If pitchers cannot get outs by nibbling around the edges of the strike zone, they will try to overpower hitters through the zone. Often hitters will be late, looking for offspeed pitches in the shadow of the zone, and strike out swinging at fastballs in the heart of the zone.
Cal Raleigh has a weighted On-Base Average over .800 on pitches in the middle of the zone as well as having a wOBA over .450 vs. fastballs. He is harder to strikeout this year because most pitchers cannot lean on their primary pitch to get an advantage. His overall hitting improvements have shied pitchers away from challenging him in the zone, leading him to take less Ks.
Walks:
Walking as a skill that was slightly taboo before the Moneyball revolution. Batting average and home runs were the determining factor in a position players value, not how often they got on base. It was cool to hit the ball and run the bases, like you succeeded against the pitcher. A walk wasn’t victory, so why should it be valued?
A walk isn’t as good as a single, but it is very close.
1. Patience
Selectivity can be difficult when you are trying to hit every pitch out of the stadium, less time to adjust and earlier swing decisions to pull the ball can result in a lot swings and misses compared to contact oriented hitter. Pitchers attempt to land these pitches in the shadow of the zone, a small area around the strike zone that make hitters expand to chase the ball
The Big Dumper has a positive run value against pitches in the shadow of the zone, the first time in his career. Pitchers have no advantages against Raleigh, no matter where they throw the ball because of his selectivity and efficiency on his swings. There is also no type of pitch that has him at a disadvantage, however he is neutral against slurves on the season. In general, he is swinging 2% points less often while maintaining a top 1% expected ISO.
2. Time
The most valuable thing a batter has is time to make a decision, it is often why 100 mph fastballs are so good. That’s difficult when hitting for power usually comes with a long swing to transfer kinetic energy from the hitters body, through the bat, and to the ball. More energy equals more velocity, which equals more HRs. So for a hitter with a big swing, he needs as much time as possible.
Cal has a bottom 4% swing length in all of the majors, meaning it is one of the longest, and he has 90% bat speed. But he compensates for this by standing very far back in the box. This all combines with his relatively closed stance and extreme attack direction to afford him the time to swing big without being late to the baseball.
Other Considerations:
Is this sustainable? I hate to be the guy to ask, but his expected numbers do not paint a favorable picture of his season going forward. So far this season, he has an elevated number of “Doubted” HRs, home runs that are not considered probable and is as far as .150 above his expected numbers in some categories. Health is a huge factor here. Raleigh has been relatively healthy this season and needs to maintain playing 150+ games if he wants to keep up this 64+ HR pace. Playing catcher cannot be the best for his body, yet he has been an iron man and suited up there for a majority of his appearances this season.
What does it mean if he keeps this up? Where would this season rank all time for catchers, or hitting seasons in general? Would he even win MVP with Aaron Judges historic season?
I have something to admit, I may be a little biased to see the Big Dumper succeed.
This may look innocuous, and I didn’t really know who it was at the time, but this is a photo I took on July 23rd, 2021. The first HR of Cal Raleigh’s career. It would be pretty cool to have been in the building for the first HR of the AL All time HR King, but the 2nd half of the 2025 season will have to decide if that is the case.